Summary
Kevin Costner’s marathon Western movie seriesHorizon: An American Sagais off to a rough start thanks to somepoor early reviews, which puts him on track to repeat one of the most infamous failures of his career. The sprawling Western adventure will weave together a series of interconnected stories across four movies, each theorized to run around three hours.Horizon: An American Saga - Part 1will hit theaters on June 28th, 2024, with the immediate sequel set to release just a few weeks later on August 16th, 2024.
Unfortunately for Costner, who has a massive personal stake in the epic saga that has been his long-developing passion project, thebox office prospects forHorizonlook bleak if not outright disastrous. While the Academy Award winner is no stranger to box office flops, Costner is nowin danger of repeating a particularly similar failure from 30 years agoif box office projections hold.Horizon’s failure may in fact surpass that earlier Western flop due to how much Costner has given up personally and professionally to will it into existence.
Horizon Could Be Another Expensive Western Box Office Failure Like Wyatt Earp
The 1994 Epic Didn’t Even Recoup Its Budget
While the sci-fi epicWaterworldmay be his most famous box office bomb, Kevin Costner was also the driving force behind the lengthy 1994 biographical Western dramaWyatt Earp. Based on the real-life exploits of the eponymous U.S. Marshal,Wyatt Earpwas released just a few months after the profitable and acclaimed ensemble Western classicTombstone, which featured many of the exact same characters, settings, and events. WhileTombstonenearly tripled its $25 million budget at the box office,Wyatt Earpmanaged just $56 million on a budget of $63 million.
Kevin Costner was actually supposed to be involved inTombstone, but his disagreement over the prominence of the character of Wyatt Earp led to him creatingWyatt Earpwith director Lawrence Kasdan.
Ironically, many of thereasons that reviews for Horizon: An American Saga are so badwere also prevalent in criticisms ofWyatt Earp. Primary among them was that the movie’s bloated 190-minute runtime obscured the better elements of the movie, such as the direction, cinematography, and acting.Horizon: An American Saga - Part 1has a runtime of 181 minutes, with a similar runtime projected for the three subsequent parts of the story. All other criticisms aside, a traditional Western with a runtime like that stands little chance of box office viability.
Why Horizon Being A Box Office Bomb Will Be Worse For Costner Than Wyatt Earp
Costner’s personal and professional stakes are greater
WhileWyatt Earpwas critically panned and a failure at the box office, it did very little to dim Kevin Costner’s star power. He bounced back in the next few years with the classic sports moviesTin CupandFor Love of the Game, andhe has remained one of Hollywood’s true A-listersin the last two decades. However,Horizon: An American Saga’s failure would be even more disastrous for Costner thanWyatt Earpdue to the damage it could do to him both personally and professionally.
1990
$366.6 million
1991
$329.8 million
1992
$246.8 million
1995
$170.2 million
1987
$163.6 million
Costner has famously invested millions of his own dollarsinto the project, even mortgaging coastal land that he owns to put the funds together to produce the first two parts ofHorizon. A box office failure would befinancially disastrous for the actor/director/producer, and could impact whether the final two parts of the saga can even be completed.Costner has already begun filmingPart 3, which means even more money is going into the project before the first two parts have even hit theaters.
Additionally,Horizon’s struggles makeCostner’s exit from the hit drama Yellowstonelook even worse. While it could have truly just been about his desire to pursue his passion project, the bevy of rumors aboutbehind-the-scenes drama on the Taylor Sheridan showcast doubt and suspicion over Costner’s decision. The potential failure ofHorizon: An American Sagaafter his abandonment ofYellowstonecould be a black mark on the record of the Hollywood icon.
What Went Wrong With Wyatt Earp’s Box Office
The 1994 Movie Was Overambitious And Poorly Timed
Overall, the biggest issue with theWyatt Earpbox office was most likely the movie’s proximity to the 1993 hitTombstone. The Costner movie came to theaters just six months after the similar title, which likely took a significant chunk out of its theatrical potential. While it didn’t underperform by a significant margin compared to the earlier movie, its production budget being more than twice that of its competitor neverthelessstymied its ability to scrape together a profit. Below, see a comparison of the critical and commercial success of both movies:
$25 million
$73.2 million
73%
94%
$63 million
$56 million
32%
61%
IfWyatt Earphad similarly only cost $25 million, it would have come much closer to being in the black. Between theaters keeping half of ticket sales and marketing costs likely being somewhat high on top of the bloated budget, the 1994 Western may still not have earned a pure profit in theaters. However, its performance on home video could have bolstered its financial prospects considerably if its budget wasn’t $63 million, whichlikely meant that its break-even point was $126 million or more.
There are also other factors that likely bled into its underperformance. The first is its run time, which was three hours and 11 minutes as compared to the still epic but considerably slimmer run time ofTombstone, which only lasted 2 hours and 10 minutes. Reviews forWyatt Earpwere also overwhelmingly negative. While modern audiences on Rotten Tomatoes have responded to the movie better than critics at the time,word of mouth likely wasn’t as strong for the movieas it would have been forTombstone.
Why Horizon’s Box Office Projections Are So Bleak & What It Means For Parts 2, 3 & 4
Will Kevin Costner Get To Complete His Western Quadrilogy?
There are several likely reasons thatHorizon’s box office projections are suffering, and they arealmost the exact same issues that plaguedWyatt Earp. The first is the critical reaction. The earlyHorizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1reviewsthat came out of its May 19 premiere at Cannes landed the movie a thoroughly rotten Tomatometer score of 43% at the time of writing. The movie may also be hampered by a bloated 3 hour and 1 minute run time, which reduces the amount of possible screenings per day in addition to potentially scaring off viewers with busier schedules.
It seems likely that Chapter 2 will still be released in theaters as planned…
The box office performance of theupcomingHorizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1could make or break the franchise. It still seems likely thatChapter 2will be released in theaters as planned, considering its proximity toChapter 1. Tickets are also being sold to both titles in tandem, so it seems unlikely it would be pulled from theaters unless the box office is truly catastrophic. However, if both installments are substantial failures, itcould potentially forceChapter 3to reduce its budgetand seeChapter 4get scrapped entirely.
Ultimately, the first moviemay connect with Costner’sYellowstoneaudienceand become a success when it reaches VOD and audiences can watch it at home. However, it remains to be seen if the project’s substantial budget prevents it from ever breaking even, just likeWyatt Earp. The first two chapters ofHorizon: An American Sagareportedly cost around $100 million altogether (including $38 million of Costner’s own money), meaning they will likely have a collective break-even point of $200 million or more.
Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1
Horizon: An American Saga - Chapter 1 is set in 1859, following families as they settle in territories from Wyoming to Kansas. The narrative centers around a cowboy on the run with a prostitute and a young boy after a deadly confrontation, exploring the challenges of life in the Old West.
