Until now,“superhero fatigue” was a convenient phraseto explain away multiple DCEU bombs, any Sony superhero movie not starring Tom Holland, or the odd random reboot like David Harbour’s woefulHellboy. But we may just be entering the end of an era this month asThe Marvels, the 32nd(!) and latest MCU movie, is expected to do less than stellar business when it releases on November 10.
How low can Marvel go? Well, with movies likeAvengers: Endgameand evenGuardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3setting the bar so high, a bad opening weekend performance by a Marvel movie is still better than pretty much every other film not namedBarbieor involving Taylor Swift. But according to a recent article inDeadline, the opening weekend presales forThe Marvelsare pacing behindBlack Adam(which debuted to a slightly disappointing $67 million last year) andThe Flash(which flatlined at $55 million this last summer). Ouch.
Why is Marvel suddenly so vulnerable? Well, there are a few theories. The aforementioned superhero fatigue is one. And the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) strike isn’t helping matters. While the union representing all of the actors in Hollywood is striking in protest of unfair working conditions, unfair financial payouts, and the threat of AI eliminating jobs, it’s preventingThe Marvels‘ cast, particularly Brie Larson, Iman Vellani, and Teyonah Parris, from actively promoting it. That means no talk show appearances, no funnyHot Onesinterviews, and zero viral TikTok dances.
Another far more likely theory is that no one really asked for aCaptain Marvelsequel. While the film grossed over $1 billion when it was released in 2019, it has almost no cultural footprint or passionate goodwill in 2023. It served its purpose of connecting one Avengers movie to another, and set up Larson’s superhero as an effective, if dull, deus ex machina who helped take out thebest villain Marvel has yet produced, Thanos.
But none of the movie’s many trailers,clips, andsneak peekshave convinced a disinterested audience that it has anything new to offer other than the usual CGI fight sequences, pointless Easter eggs that endlessly tease a new future project, or corny one-liners that are a dime a dozen nowadays.
All this points to a franchise low point, withThe Marvelsexpecting to debutanywhere from $45 million to $70 million and complete its domestic run well under $200 million. That’s lower thanAnt-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which many thought was the the nadir for MCU movies. For a movie that costs around $250 million, it will need all the help it can get from overseas audiences to simply break even. Whatever happens, just don’t count onCaptain Marvel 3to ever see the light of day.
